The impact of changes in population age structure on productivity in Vietnam

Abstract

This research used data from the Enterprise Census from 2010 to 2012 and results from GSO’s population projections for Vietnam in 2014-2049 (GSO, 2015) to estimate labor productivity by age groups. The research applied the economic model proposed by Aubert and Crépon (2007) to quantify labor productivity by age groups and used Shift-Share Analysis (SSA) method to quantify the impacts of both labor shifts and growth in labor productivity by age on the national labor productivity. The research results showed that structural changes of age population in 2019 will not take advantage of the number of population creating high productivity (aging from 35 to 54 ) because the proportion of this population group will decrease. This is the challenge of decreasing labor productivity of the economy in the long-term when population will be rapidly aging.